Islanders Should Go For It During Schaefer’s Entry-Level Contract
With the NHL Trade Deadline looming, how aggressive will Mathieu Darche be as Matthew Schaefer’s ELC reshapes the Islanders’ Stanley Cup timeline?
With Mathieu Darche’s first NHL Trade Deadline coming up shortly, we are all curious to see the direction he wants to go. It’s unlikely that he’ll be selling off any of his pending unrestricted free agents in Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Anders Lee, Tony DeAngelo, and David Rittich, with his team sitting in third place in the Metropolitan Division.
We’ve already seen him add to this group, rewarding them with forward Ondrej Palat and Carson Soucy as lineup stabilizers. But will he add more ahead of the 3 PM ET deadline on March 6, and if so, how big a move is he looking to make?
The real question is: how important it is for Darche to build a Stanley Cup contender while No. 1 overall pick Matthew Schaefer is on his entry-level deal?
Three seasons is a long time. A lot can change from now to then: the coaching staff, the growth of an organization or lack thereof, the skill of competitors, the salary cap — you name it.
Schaefer’s rise to becoming the Islanders’ No. 1 defenseman in short order has changed the timeline for this franchise. Even the best defensive prospects the league has ever seen, like Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Victor Hedman, took at least a year before rising to the level Schaefer has been able to get to — none of whom entered the NHL at 18.
Because of Schaefer’s quick rise to stardom at the position he plays — a mobile two-way defenseman who can play north of 24 minutes a night and on the top power play without his play dipping — the Islanders have a critical piece, the hardest piece to acquire, in building a Stanley Cup championship roster.
The current roster has holes, and while the core isn’t collectively getting younger, that doesn’t mean it can’t be effective over the next few years in a search for the club’s first Stanley Cup since 1983.
Ilya Sorokin is back to being a Vezina-caliber netminder, while Mathew Barzal, back healthy, is turning into a legitimate two-way threat before our eyes, certainly learning the importance of details from Bo Horvat.
Just because the pieces are starting to take place, that doesn’t mean Darche needs to turn this team into a Cup Contender by March 6.
However, with two first-round picks in 2026, a top prospect pool, and a boatload of cap space, the opportunity to make a big splash for an elite forward is there now and over the next few years.
We do know that Darche isn’t moving his first-round picks for older players.
He’s looking to get a piece that fits the core — someone who can help this current group get to the top of the mountain, but also serve as a player who leads the next generation of Islanders alongside Schaefer, Calum Ritchie, and hopefully other prospects that live up to the hype like Victor Eklund, Cole Eiserman, and Kashawn Aitcheson.
That’s why names like the St. Louis Blues’ Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas come up in conversation: players in their prime who can help the team now and going forward.
“You become a Stanley Cup contender by, yes, developing prospects, but by adding.” No team has won on prospects alone.
To become a Stanley Cup-level team, the Islanders likely need to add an elite forward, a top-four right-side defenseman, and maybe shore up their bottom six, too.
Sounds like a lot. It is.
But it goes back to the question: How quickly does Darche want to make this happen while Schaefer is still on his entry-level contract?
Right now, Schaefer remains on his ELC through 2027-28 before becoming a pending restricted free agent. I’d expect the Islanders to want to go long-term, with a max of seven years. The AAV will be high and well deserved. It’s not crazy to think he’ll be making north of $8 million annually, even as an RFA — that might be severely low-balling it — especially with the cap rising exponentially season after season.
We truly haven’t seen anything like what Schaefer’s doing at 18, so it’s really difficult to gauge his next deal — the Islanders will pay whatever it is.
The exact AAV will impact the Islanders’ ability to make moves, depending on other extensions or signings that occur during that time. We can play the hypothetical game, but complete accuracy here is impossible.
Starting with the blue line, Tony DeAngelo has played very well in his first full season on Long Island, and the Islanders could save money by bringing him back on a short-term deal. I don’t believe the Islanders have discussed a contract extension with DeAngelo just yet — there’s no need at this moment.
The Islanders will have to upgrade that position at some point — unless it’s Isaiah George who transitions to the right side going forward.
We know that Darche likes a big, tall blue line. The Lightning teams that won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021 had one of the smallest forward groups but one of the biggest blue lines. That’s why Soucy is here.
Could Vancouver Canucks’ Tyler Myers be someone he shows interest in? I’ve heard his name come up a few times.
But the biggest issue for the Islanders to become a true Stanley Cup contender is finally finding an elite goal-scoring winger.
Top-six scorers don’t grow on trees. Trading Brock Nelson — something that had to happen — left a glaring hole. They’re incredibly difficult to acquire on the trade market, with teams leveraging their future to do so. Those types of players rarely make it to free agency, leading to bidding wars for the ones that do.
Drafting and developing is the best bet to land one, turning a prospect into the answer or trading the prospect to get the answer.
The Islanders certainly hope Eklund and Eiserman can be offensive answers.
Eklund is likely more of a Josh Bailey — an impressive playmaker who helps drive offense. Eiserman’s shot is the shot this team needs, but can he overcome the other holes in his game to create enough time and space to get that shot off consistently without being a liability defensively?
That’s likely the concern — it’s what held Kiefer Bellows and Oliver Wahlstrom back from reaching their potential.
That doesn’t mean both players can’t help the Islanders, but can they be the true difference-makers the team needs?
Realistically, Eklund could be on the Islanders’ roster in 2026-27, with Eiserman likely not arriving until 2027-28 — if he remains with the organization.
Does re-signing Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Anders Lee get the Islanders close to being a Stanley Cup-winning team?
There’s no issue re-signing both — that’s more than likely to happen at team-friendly discounts — but more has to be done in the top six.
Jonathan Drouin and Anthony Duclair haven’t lived up to their deals, and quite frankly, neither is a player who, on a Cup-winning team, is in the top six. They are complementary pieces. The same goes for Palat, who right now is playing on the top line — it’s not like Leo Komarov in 2021 when Lee went down with a torn ACL — but you know what I mean.
Contrary to popular belief, money is not an obstacle for the Islanders. They have the cap space now and in the summer to get the player they need to take a step toward becoming elite. And they’ll have flexibility going forward while Schaefer remains on his ELC.
Following the 2026-27 season, the Islanders will see Kyle Palmieri, Jonathan Drouin, Casey Cizikas, and Semyon Varlamov come off the books. Barzal will be about to turn 30. Horvat will be 31. Sorokin will be 32. Schaefer will no longer be a teenager.
The cap could be somewhere around $113.5 million.
The roster will look drastically different, with the likes of Eklund, Danny Nelson, Quinn Finley, Eiserman, Isaiah George, and Kashawn Aitcheson potentially all having roles at the NHL level.
Darche won’t rush to make a risky decision for the fun of it. He took on a roster with long-term deals and trade protection. He has to navigate that.
We can’t ignore the fact that Schaefer will likely entice free agents, maybe not to the level of a Macklin Celebrini or a Connor McDavid, because they are forwards. For that reason, it makes sense for Darche to talk to free agents rather than having to pull players away from teams.
Here’s a list of pending unrestricted free agents in 2026, 2027 & 2028 that could fit what the Islanders need, keeping in mind that extensions could take them off the board.
2026 F: Nick Schmaltz, Alex Tuch, Jordan Eberle, Victor Oloffson
2026 D: Cale Makar (ha), Darren Raddysh, Nick Blankenburg
2027 F: Mark Stone, Nikita Kucherov, Alex DeBrincat
2027 D: Tyler Myers, Jalen Chatfield, Nick Pebrbix
2028 F: Zach Hyman, Artemi Panarin, Brock Nelson
2028 D: Sean Durzi, Josh Manson, Dougie Hamilton
*This list does not include pending restricted free agents, who could be acquired via offer sheets or trades.
Will Darche start adding pieces to make the future brighter come the 2026 NHL Trade Deadline, or will he wait until the summer?
It comes back to our first question of the day: how important is it for Darche to build a Stanley Cup contender while Schaefer is on his entry-level deal?
ELMONTERS Q &A
@joeybisles: Who would you want to play against in the first round if we make it in?
If I were the Islanders, the only team I would not want to face in the first round is the Carolina Hurricanes, for obvious reasons. Everyone else, the Islanders should be confident to go up against. I think what’s more important here is the Islanders getting home-ice advantage, finding a way to finish as the No. 2 seed in the Metropolitan Division. The last time they had that was in 2019 against Pittsburgh, when they swept them.
@mlegere60191: Ultimately, what do you believe the Blues will settle on for Kyrou? A first-round pick and a prospect? Does it work if Eiserman, Eklund, and Aitcheson are off the table? Would D. Nelson or Poletin plus a third-rounder be enough?
Like any negotiation, the Blues will have a high ask, but it usually comes down a bit. I could see him costing a first-round pick, a later conditional pick, and a top prospect. I don’t think it works if neither of those first three prospects you mentioned is going back the other way. We have to think about what the Blues need, and I think it’s Aitcheson, given their lack of young blue-line depth.
@barzyhaites: 1. When do you think coaching staffs would consider calling up our prospects, such as Eklund and Eiserman? 2. Will Darche extend Rittich’s contract for next season?
Neither prospect can be called up yet, as they aren’t truly with the organization. I’m told that Eklund, who signed his three-year entry-level deal this past summer, will be coming to North America for the 2026-27 season, whether he’s playing in the NHL or AHL. Eiserman, who is finishing up his sophomore season at Boston University, has not signed his ELC yet, nor has there been an announcement that he’s leaving school. I could see him going back to school. As for David Rittich, I believe we will see him get a short-term extension. There’s no rush on this.
